The 2024-2026 app store wars ended in a settlement: Apple and Google both cut headline rates and introduced new billing options. 2027 is the first year developers can plan around stable regulatory and pricing frameworks. Here's what the landscape looks like.
EU: the DMA settles
The EU Digital Markets Act has had three years of enforcement by 2027. Apple's EU link-out commissions settle at 15% (10% reduced), the Core Technology Commission on alternative distribution at 5%, and the fundamental DMA requirement — allowing alternative stores — is firmly in place. Expect in 2027:
- Alternative iOS app stores reaching 2-5% EU market share. Not threatening Apple's dominance but material for high-volume categories.
- The 5% Core Technology Commission scrutinized by the Commission for being too close to the old Core Technology Fee. Potential adjustment in late 2027.
- EU subscription apps mostly settled on 15% link-outs by 2027; direct In-App Purchase at 26% is used only for impulse or trial conversions.
US: Epic v. Apple fallout continues
After the April 2025 Epic v. Apple injunction (US developers can link to external checkout without commission), Apple's August 2026 court filing asked for commissions of 15%/10%/5% on US link-outs. The court decision expected in 2027 will set the US framework for years:
- Most likely outcome: approval of 15% US link-out commission matching the EU, with reduced rates for Small Business Program.
- Alternative: approval of a lower rate (5-10%) that would make US link-outs more attractive than EU equivalents.
- Unlikely but possible: approval of zero commission on link-outs, matching the pre-2026 interim state.
Developers should budget assuming 15% US link-outs by H2 2027, with a plan to re-model if the court goes lower.
Google Play's global rollout
Google's June 2026 split (10% service fee + 5% billing fee) applies to the US, UK and EEA. The rollout schedule continues:
- Australia: September 30, 2026.
- Japan and South Korea: December 31, 2026.
- Rest of the world: September 30, 2027.
By October 2027, every Google Play developer globally is on the new split. Subscription apps on Play Billing still pay 15% total; apps using alternative billing or web links pay 10% service fee only.
Effective commission averages across the market
Developer net-of-fee economics look different in 2027 than they did in 2024:
- A subscription SaaS selling globally through Apple's App Store + Google Play paid roughly 25-28% effective commission in 2024.
- The same mix in 2027: 13-18% effective commission after Small Business Program, link-outs, subscription year-two rates and Google Play's split.
- The 10-15 percentage points developers get back goes directly to margin on subscription businesses that don't have equivalent cost increases elsewhere.
Alternative app stores: real but niche
AltStore PAL, Epic Games Store on iOS, Setapp Mobile and others reach small but material EU market share through 2027. For most app categories (productivity, finance, enterprise) they don't matter. For gaming, media and categories where in-app purchases dominate revenue, they offer:
- A 5% Core Technology Commission total cost vs 26% through Apple's own store.
- Direct customer relationships, no Apple intermediation.
- Different review guidelines (looser on some adult/gambling categories).
US alternative stores remain blocked outside the EU unless Congress or the courts force Apple's hand further. 2027 doesn't look likely to change this.
Tip: The App Store Fee Calculator supports every 2027 tier: Apple EU 26/20/15/5%, Apple US link-outs, Google Play 10%+5%, alternative stores at 5% CTC. Model your real net.
What this means for 2027 planning
If you're building a subscription or in-app-purchase app, three decisions matter in 2027:
- Decide where EU customers check out. Link-outs give you more customer data and lower commission; direct IAP is simpler and converts better.
- Decide whether to launch on alternative EU app stores. For most apps, no. For gaming or media, probably yes.
- Decide on Apple vs Google billing-system economics. The decision rules for both are different enough that 'subscription on both' usually ends with different flows.
Questions people ask
- What's the effective app store commission in 2027?
- Averaged across Apple and Google, direct IAP and link-outs, a global subscription app pays 13-18% in 2027 — down from 25-28% in 2024.
- Is Google Play's new split in effect everywhere in 2027?
- By September 30, 2027 yes. US/UK/EEA since June 2026, Australia since September 2026, Japan/Korea since December 2026, rest of world by September 2027.
- Should I switch to EU link-outs?
- If your average revenue per subscription is high and you can run your own checkout, yes — 15% commission beats 26% through Apple's billing. Factor in your card processor, chargebacks, and refund operations.
- Will Apple approve US link-outs at a lower rate than EU?
- Court decision expected in 2027. Most likely outcome is matching the EU 15%/10%/5%. Developers should budget for 15% US link-outs by H2 2027.
- Are alternative iOS app stores worth launching on?
- In the EU, for gaming and media apps where in-app purchases dominate revenue, probably yes. For most other categories, no — the market share is too small to justify the engineering.
Sources
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